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DanDan
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 06:57:08
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Question. When will the house price bubble burst in the USA sending
prices of real estate crashing downwards?


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J
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 20:11:56
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DanDan wrote in news:1155045428.609920.312450
@m79g2000cwm.googlegroups.com:

> Question. When will the house price bubble burst in the USA sending
> prices of real estate crashing downwards?
>
>

I dont think it will, there are no signs of a curent bubble (there are 7
signs and none of them have happened yet). BUT Im sure there will be a
price corections in some overpriced markets, since interest rates are going
up.


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XYZoo@webtv.net (X Y)
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 17:28:57
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Joined: 2006-08-08 17:28:57
I am flabergasted that anyone could honestly believe there are no signs
of a current bubble in real estate. Bubble barometers include:
Sliding sales, stagnant or even falling home prices, record inventories
of homes for sale, climbing interest rates, ARMs that are hitting hard
at mortgage holders, alarming foreclosure trends, etc. Real estate
market corrections or bursting bubbles seem inevitable at this point.
It is amazing that there is still a high level of denial and
over-rationalization like calling the slump a return to normal
conditions.


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Doug Freyburger
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 16:19:56
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X Y wrote:
>
> I am flabergasted that anyone could honestly believe there are no signs
> of a current bubble in real estate.

Bubbles have historically been for items not needed on the scale
implied by their markets. Dutch tulip bubble, Florida samp land
crash, attempt to corner the silver market, stocks in tech
companies not showing a profit.

So youre saying that real estate isnt needed then? Sure thing.
While there are specific geographies where the market prices
climbed far beyond affordability there are many that did not. So
while there are regional bubbles for most places normal market
price growths are leading to normal market cycle swings. My
house has neither increased nor decreased market price in the
last year - certainly not what the term bubble is supposed to
mean.

By all means fuss about bubbles, though. Sell your place at a
huge loss immediately. To me of course ...


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sim7396@hotmail.com
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 18:26:38
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Joined: 2006-08-08 18:26:38
The boom is over. We can argue here over semantics, but the truth is,
that the party is over. Real Estate is cyclical, prices go up and down.
But these cycles are very long, of 10-20 years duration. Problem is,
many people have only 3-year memories. What is unusual about this
latest boom, is that prices went up to ridiculously high prices
(compared to incomes, rent, CPI, etc.). Economists agree that there
will be a correction. But no one has a crystal ball, so we cant tell
how fast or how low will houses prices drop.

Look how housing inventory has more than doubled in certain areas in
less than a year:

http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/

This place has intelligent discussion on the bubble:

http://www.piggington.com

And here too:

http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com

DanDan wrote:
> Question. When will the house price bubble burst in the USA sending
> prices of real estate crashing downwards?


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sim7396@hotmail.com
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 18:31:43
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Joined: 2006-08-08 18:31:43
Doug Freyburger wrote:
> Bubbles have historically been for items not needed on the scale
> implied by their markets. Dutch tulip bubble, Florida samp land
> crash, attempt to corner the silver market, stocks in tech
> companies not showing a profit.
>
> So youre saying that real estate isnt needed then? Sure thing.

I disagree. What defines a bubble is the fact that people keep buying
and bidding prices upwards simply because they think that prices will
keep going forever. Have you heard of flippers? Or people buying houses
with zero-down or neg arm loans or even ARMs about to reset?

A lot of naive buyers and flippers bought simply because they believed
that real estate prices always go up. Look at the inventory numbers
going up... A lot of those flippers and highly leveraged buyers are
toast!


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sim7396@hotmail.com
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-08 18:32:34
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Joined: 2006-08-08 18:32:34
Doug Freyburger wrote:
> Bubbles have historically been for items not needed on the scale
> implied by their markets. Dutch tulip bubble, Florida samp land
> crash, attempt to corner the silver market, stocks in tech
> companies not showing a profit.
>
> So youre saying that real estate isnt needed then? Sure thing.

I disagree. What defines a bubble is the fact that people keep buying
and bidding prices upwards simply because they think that prices will
keep going forever. Have you heard of flippers? Or people buying houses
with zero-down or neg arm loans or even ARMs about to reset?

A lot of naive buyers and flippers bought simply because they believed
that real estate prices always go up. Look at the inventory numbers
going up... A lot of those flippers and highly leveraged buyers are
toast!


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J
 Post subject: House price bubble
PostPosted: 2006-08-10 00:45:40
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Joined: 2006-08-10 00:45:40
sim7396@hotmail.com wrote in news:1155086798.303213.21920@
75g2000cwc.googlegroups.com:

> The boom is over. We can argue here over semantics, but the truth is,
> that the party is over. Real Estate is cyclical, prices go up and down.
> But these cycles are very long, of 10-20 years duration. Problem is,
> many people have only 3-year memories. What is unusual about this
> latest boom, is that prices went up to ridiculously high prices
> (compared to incomes, rent, CPI, etc.). Economists agree that there
> will be a correction. But no one has a crystal ball, so we cant tell
> how fast or how low will houses prices drop.
>
> Look how housing inventory has more than doubled in certain areas in
> less than a year:
>
> http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/
>
> This place has intelligent discussion on the bubble:
>
> http://www.piggington.com
>
> And here too:
>
> http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com
>
> DanDan wrote:
>> Question. When will the house price bubble burst in the USA sending
>> prices of real estate crashing downwards?
>
>

Im not saying there will not be some correction, of course there will,
depending on your market. What Im saying is that I dont think there will
be a bubble, as in a huge instant crash. I know in california where I am
that there will be no bubble soon, just because the market is over inflated
by a HUGE amount, there are still hundres of people moving into the area,
and the population is growing, supply and demand, no bubble. Even Robert
Kiyosaki recently said at a confrence I attended that there will be no
bubble without the signs. If you want to learn about a bubble though go
here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United States housing bubble


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